AAMC Report Highlights Healthcare Workforce Challenges
The median number of active physicians increased slightly from 2008 to 2018, but nearly one-third of all doctors were 60 years or older by the end of the period, AAMC reported.
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By - The healthcare workforce grew slightly over the last decade, according to a new report from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC).
Published earlier this month, the 2019 State Physician Workforce Data Report showed that the median number of active physicians per 100,000 population increased to 263.3 physicians in 2018 from 239.6 physicians in 2008.
The number of active patient care physicians also grew during the ten-year period, increasing to 234.0 physicians per 100,000 population from 213.5 physicians per 100,000 population.
However, the report revealed little change in the median number of active primary care physicians (89.9 per 100,000 population in 2008 versus 91.3 per 100,000 population in 2018) and a decrease in the median number of active general surgeons (8.0 per 100,000 population in 2008 versus 7.7 per 100,000 population in 2018).
Additionally, the report showed that nearly one-third (32.1 percent) of active physicians were 60 years or older in 2018.
The report highlights the growing healthcare workforce problem. Demand for physicians continues to outpace supply, with the most recent estimates showing a physician shortage of up to 121,900 doctors by 2032.
The shortage spells trouble for the industry, which is facing an increasing number of older individuals who have greater resource utilization and are living longer through population health management efforts. The population aged 65 years and over is slated to grow by 48.0 percent from 2017 to 2032, AAMC reported earlier this year.
States in the Northeast, however, may be able to handle the challenge better than others, the most recent report showed.
AAMC reported that there were 277.8 active physicians per 100,000 population in 2018, ranging from a high of 449.5 in Massachusetts to a low of 191.3 in Mississippi. Generally, states in the Northeast had the highest number of physicians per 100,000 population, while states in the South and Midwest reported lower levels in 2018.
In addition to Mississippi, other states falling below the median of active physicians per 100,000 population in 2018 included Idaho (192.6), Oklahoma (206.7), Arkansas (207.6), Wyoming (207.9), Nevada (213.5), Utah (216.2), Alabama (217.1) Iowa (218.2), Texas (224.8), and Kansas (227.6).
Many of these states also had the least number of active patient care primary care physicians per 100,000 population, the report found.
There is some positive news, however, on the supply side. Individuals are increasingly enrolling in medical school, the report showed.
The median number of students enrolled in an MD- or DO-granting school per 100,000 population increased to 34.6 in 2018 from 25.4 in 2008. The percentage of MD students matriculating also increased to 68.2 percent from 64.4 percent during the period.
However, the number of residents and fellows enrolled in graduate medical education did not increase as quickly, the report revealed. The total number of residents and fellows in a program accredited by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education per 100,000 population only increased to 29.9 in 2018 from 26.8 in 2008.
The increases in undergraduate and graduate medical education enrollment are modest and whether the boosts are enough to offset greater demand for services remains to be seen.
But medical schools in rural areas may have an opportunity to get students to remain in the state.
The report found that state retention rates were highest for physicians who completed both undergraduate and graduate medical education in the state, and there has been little change in the percentage of physicians retained from undergraduate and graduate medical education compared to ten years earlier.
In general, over two-thirds (67.3 percent) of physicians who completed both programs in the same state stayed in the state to practice, the report uncovered.
Rural areas face significant clinician shortage problems. A recent report focusing on shortage issues in Nebraska found that 13 of the 93 counties in the state had no primary care provider and about one-fifth of the physicians practicing in the state were over 60 years old.
The clinician shortage led to gaps in care for certain specialties, researchers from the University of Nebraska Medicare Center stated in the report.
