Practice Management News

Physician Shortage Continues to Grow, Reaching Up to 122K by 2032

Aging patients and doctors will continue to put pressure on the healthcare industry, resulting in a physician shortage of between 46,900 and 121,900 doctors by 2032.

Physician shortage

Source: Thinkstock

By Jacqueline LaPointe

- Physician demand continues to increase faster than supply, resulting in a projected total physician shortage of up to 121,900 doctors by 2032, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) reports.

The fifth annual study, prepared by the Life Science division of IHS Markit for AAMC, reveals that the growing and aging population continues to be a major driver of the updated physician shortage, which is similar to the previous study’s projected shortage range for 2030 of between 42,600 and 121,300 doctors.

“The nation’s population is growing and aging, and as we continue to address population health goals like reducing obesity and tobacco use, more Americans will live longer lives. These factors and others mean we will need more doctors,” Darrell G. Kirch, MD, AAMC president and CEO, stated in a press release. “Even with new ways of delivering care, America’s doctor shortage continues to remain real and significant.”

Researchers estimate the population to grow by 10.3 percent from about 326 million to 359 million individuals between 2017 and 2032.

Additionally, the population under age 18 is slated to increase by just 3.5 percent, while the population aged 65 years and over is projected to rise by 48.0 percent during the same period.

READ MORE: 13% of People Live in an Area with a Primary Care Physician Shortage

The growing and aging population will strain the healthcare system. Individuals aged 65 years and older demand more services compared to the younger populations and senior healthcare spending is significantly greater compared to their younger counterparts. In fact, AAMC finds that the demand for services used by individuals 65 years and older will be significantly higher than the percentage growth in demand for pediatric services.

Successful population health management will also increase demand for physicians in the long term despite a stagnant supply of doctors, the report estimates.

Achieving certain population health management goals like decreasing excess body weight, reducing smoking prevalence, and improving the control of blood glucose levels, blood pressure, and cholesterol will increase longevity for select populations, resulting in greater demand for physician services by 2032, AAMC explains.

They project the demand for physicians to be 33,900 full-time-equivalents (FTEs) higher in 2032 relative to the demand levels if the industry fails to achieve the population health management goals. Demand will also particularly increase for certain specialties like geriatric medicine compared to other specialties like endocrinology.

However, AAMC anticipates all types of providers to experience a physician shortage problem over the next decade and even longer.

READ MORE: CFOs Expect Higher Hospital Labor Costs As Staffing Shortages Loom

The report shows that the industry will see a primary care physician shortfall of between 55,200 and 21,100 doctors by 2032. In addition, the association projects shortages in non-primary care specialists, ranging from 54,800 to 65,800 physicians during the same period. Specifically, the association estimates a 14,300 to 23,400 shortfall for surgical specialties.

Overall, the physician shortage is likely to get worse as time goes on, AAMC highlights. The association finds that more than two out of five currently active physicians are approaching retirement age in the next decade, and their decision to stop practicing could have the greatest impact on physician supply, the report states.

Practicing physicians over age 65 years currently represent 15 percent of the active workforce, while those between ages 55- and 54-years old account for 27 percent. AAMC emphasizes that over 40 percent of the currently active physician workforce is at risk for retiring over the next ten years.

Physicians are also choosing to work fewer hours, creating physician shortage issues, the report adds.

Physicians of all ages have been practicing fewer hours a week over the past decade, with the reduction in hours worked being significant when compared to the hours-worked patterns of younger physicians relative to physicians of the same age a decade ago, AAMC reports.

READ MORE: Physician Shortage Drives Boost in Nursing, Physician Assistant Pay

“If this trend continues and hours worked decline even further, then by 2032 the national supply will be 20,900 FTE physicians lower than if physician hours-worked patterns remained unchanged,” the association states.

Industry experts have argued that advanced practice providers may be able to step in to help alleviate some of the problems created by the persistent physician shortage. One recent study in the American Journal of Medicine finds nurse practitioners and physician assistants delivered comparable care to diabetes patients.

Another analysis in the Journal of Clinical Outcomes Management finds higher physician assistant to physician rations reduces healthcare costs more than a traditional staffing model, leaving more revenue for labor costs and potentially more physicians on staff.

AAMC’s fifth annual study shows the supply of physician assistants (PAs) and advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs) continuing to grow. However, the association does not anticipate an increase in the use of advanced practice providers to solve the physician shortage problem.

In addition, the report shows that the physician shortage will persistent even with greater use of alternate, cheaper settings, delayed physician retirement, and changes in healthcare payment and delivery through value-based models like accountable care organization (ACOs).

“Addressing the shortage will require a multipronged approach, including innovation in delivery; greater use of technology; improved, efficient use of all health professionals on the care team; and an increase in federal support for residency training. The magnitude of the projected shortfalls is significant enough that no single solution will be sufficient to resolve physician shortages,” AAMC states.

“Because physician training can take up to a decade, a physician shortage in 2032 is a problem that needs to be addressed now,” the association stresses.